17 Comments
Oct 20, 2023Liked by Cameron Murray

With hindsight we can now safely say the world understands inflation again.

Destroying carefully honed supply chains, stopping workers from producing, issuing trillions in new debt for handouts, which only transferred wealth from productive to unproductive sectors of the global economy...

While at the same time retiring fossil fuel energy sources with renewables unready to plug the gaps...

The global population is paying the price for their hysteria via hikes in prices for all the goods & services they buy.

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Making more people aware of the excessive costs of the NPI's that we actually got is hugely important. Full Stop. More power to you.

I think you somewhat undermine the message, however, by implying that almost no NPI were cost effective and that everyone who should have know, knew it.

And errors in vaccine development and deployment involve a different set of issues.

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You need to narrow your focus. Who made which decisions with NPV< 0? Why did they make them? Why didn't the media catch them out?

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What about the counter factual scenario though?

Currently Australia has a COVID mortality rate of 62.95/100,000 for about 15k deaths from COVID.

The counter factual scenario is we do less to reduce the impact of COVID. The USA (where they did a lot less) has a COVID mortality rate of 327.48/100,000. At that rate Australia would have had in the order of ~81k COVID death, or ~66k more than we've actually had.

While lockdowns and restrictions might have led to the 18k excess deaths you've talked about, that's still a lot less than the 66k extra deaths we could reasonably expect if we hadn't taken steps to restrict COVID spread?

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While it’s true that Covid is mainly a danger to the elderly, quite a few younger people, perhaps unaware of their co-morbidities, died early in the pandemic. Because it wasn’t yet clear what these co-morbidities might be and how to treat symptoms, some of the early NPIs were justified…..but certainly not after vaccine availability, and not after it became more apparent how SARS2 spreads.

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What happened to Sweden? They went down the pandemic handbook path didn’t they?

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Just curious Cam, are there any countries/jurisdictions that have avoided (or have limited) the uptick in non-COVID deaths? If so, what made their COVID policy responses different? Are there any good counter-factuals?

Or is the claim that this is a global problem that no single nation could insulate themselves from? Because if individual national decisions on COVID policy responses were somewhat powerless to prevent the rise in non-COVID deaths, then we have a global collective action problem. And while we can point fingers at ourselves, policymakers, politicians, journos etc. It isn't clear whether we would've bucked the global trend or not had our own domestic policies been different.

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The real long term affects of Covid is a chronic cohort of folks who picked one side of the argument early doors and refused to change their mind. They've doubled down on an idea that Covid is mostly harmless, vaccines are risky and policy makers are stupid.

It's really not hard to find good evidence to the contrary - though you seem to ignore it wilfully.

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10238-020-00648-x

https://academic.oup.com/eurheartj/article/43/11/1124/6499078

And so on.

How can anyone take you at face value when you ignore this? Are you afraid to change your mind? I guess I would be too if I'd gone on TV and print newspaper with a reputation for challenging the status quo. It would be an embarrassing climb down, so time is better spent throwing doubt at areas that are grey before moving onto the next thing that policy makers get wrong (Inevitably). One could make a career out of it.

There is a lack of concrete data around the effects of lockdown on health, however emergent data about Covid (Long term and insidious multi organ infection) points to the high likelihood that Covid is more nefarious than a simple respiratory infection. You would do well to pay attention to this data and perhaps take your head out of the circle jerk of conspiracy theorists and cranks you obviously enjoy.

Good luck with your next Covid infection.

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