Discussion about this post

User's avatar
Tim Helm's avatar

This all makes complete sense. Thanks for laying it out so clearly.

For anyone unconvinced, this is further reason to focus analysis of housing affordability exclusively on rents.

Since asset prices are buffetted around by interest rates and expectations and are skewed across jurisidictions by tax rates, the only reliable way to conduct like-for-like comparisons or comparisons through time is to use rental prices for dwellings of a consistent quality.

Expand full comment
Chris Parker's avatar

Thanks Cam. I agree the tax regime matters when comparing house prices across jurisdictions. For instance, Glaeser and Gyourko (2018) 'The Economic Implications of Housing Supply' incorrectly identified Houston as being a city where prices were below the 'minimum profitable production cost' (ie, a city in decline), when it's the classic fast growing city with responsive housing supply. That's because Texas makes above average use of land taxes to fund public works, so its house prices would've seemed too low compared to their default benchmarks.

But I wouldn't apply Texas's property tax rate to a Brisbane priced home. Their house prices are vastly less, so they pay less tax than your example implies. Also, maybe half of those taxes pay for schools and their income tax rates are correspondingly lower. Eg an example I have from 2018 is a new build in a Houston municipal utility district valued at $185k USD with annual taxes of $5.4k, of which $2.4k are for the schooling district. Given you won't pay for schools through your property tax, the $3k non-school property taxes are on par with what you pay.

If houses were trebled in price, all else equal, it's more reasonable to presume their tax rates would reduce to one third to maintain govt revenues. Also, your net income would be higher with Texas taxes because your income is not used to pay for schools serves your broader point thought: it's hard to compare house values across different states and countries.

Also in some states they cap use a much lower "assessed value" basis to apply the tax rate to, which is based on a price circa 1990 that increases only at something near the rate of general inflation (eg 2% in California, or 3% in Oregon). The market value and 'assessed value' can be very different. So US states generally wouldn't ever apply a 1.9% tax to an overpriced house such as in Brisbane, so it's not the right comparison. Perhaps if you reduced the value of your home to 1990 prices and then applied the 1.9% tax you might get it closer to the annual property taxes paid.

Expand full comment
18 more comments...

No posts