The comment about no-one warning about the NDIS 10 years ago is totally wrong. There was an immense number of warnings just no-one would listen. All the hype came from the government and philosophically aligned entities that have dominated much of the media and progressive policy for decades. Numerous extracts from the IPA, CIS , Australian etc exist . Even John Waslh one of the NDIS architects was warning by 2014 was warning of eligibilty creep and unworkable systems. The social backlash against these critics was immense
I want to clarify what I meant when I quickly wrote the comment above this morning. My isusues are more clearly detailled below.
I found the introduction to this interview deeply problematic. Cameron’s claim that 'there weren't that many people 10 years ago saying the NDIS would become a problem... almost no one was talking about this' is a total erasure of the actual policy debate.
The reality is that an immense number of people were asking exactly how the scheme would work and who would check it. From Judith Sloan and Henry Ergas to the IPA and CIS, there was a consistent, loud, and very public warning that the NDIS lacked the gatekeeping and price-setting mechanisms to remain viable. Even one of the scheme’s own architects, John Walsh, was raising red flags about 'unworkable systems' and 'eligibility creep' by 2014.
To suggest that Paul Frijters was a lone voice in a sea of blind optimism isn't 'Fresh Thinking'—it’s revisionist history. The warnings didn't fail to exist; they failed to get traction because the government and progressive media socially and professionally vilified anyone who dared to question the 'vibe' of the scheme.
Using such a foundational falsehood as a lead-in to Paul’s 'unique insights' destroyed the credibility of the entire discussion for me. It felt less like an objective analysis and more like academic hagiography—a student still in awe of his supervisor’s brilliance at the expense of historical fact. I tuned out after 15 minutes.
I've been an admirer of you both since coming across Game of Mates around 2019 - the first analysis of Australian political corruption explaining to me what had gone wrong with Australia during my nearly two decades away teaching in Japan. I enjoyed the way you approached this interview with Paul - framing questions almost as I might do - not exactly sure where I was aiming for - but Paul immediately able to focus on the matter and deliver his analysis while hedging it with two or three possible scenario outcomes (having, as he said early on, grown through his younger sureties into realising developments can easily upset forecasts) but too that experience and the years teach other ways when making predictions. The questions on the NDIS - and I've not been involved closely with family of relatives - seemed to make a lot of sense - especially about the scamming of "providers" and how those originally to be cared for has grown to include a range of disabilities almost invisible to the wider population. And yes, there was an ABC news story I just watched last night which seemed to deal with such an emotionally presented case... But it was on the West Asia (or Middle East - to view it from Paul's geographic location) that I was most interested. That to see things as if the world were a schoolyard playground - with a bully (in this case I see it as the amalgam of the US/Zionist Israel) to which Australia immediately attaches itself - as a former teacher myself - the metaphor had immediate appeal - let alone the fact that like almost everyone else I was once a student in such spaces - not like Australia - but as one who kept away from the bullies and their allies. I was alert to the statistics of those killed in Gaza - for six months now I have been saying around 700,000 - at least 10 times more than most "official" figures which have scarcely grown since mid+2024 and I take Paul's point about seriously trying to understand what is happening taking effort - finding trustworthy sources, having memory and referring back to it and analysing - or else what - following the ABC news (totally compromised by its lying and censorship) and simply going with the flow? Which I can't do. Thank you to you and your guest for this edition of Fresh Economic Thinking!
700,000!? Wow. That’d be more than 25% of all Gazans wouldn’t it? What’s your source?
I’m curious on your view as to why Hamas, who are obviously incentivised to make Israel look as bad as possible, claim only a little over 10% of this figure.
My understanding is that there’s not a lot of room for fudging of these numbers (up or down), with pretty good publicly-available data on the Gazan population. I understood that as the reason why the death toll is one the few areas upon which Hamas and Israel agree.
The comment about no-one warning about the NDIS 10 years ago is totally wrong. There was an immense number of warnings just no-one would listen. All the hype came from the government and philosophically aligned entities that have dominated much of the media and progressive policy for decades. Numerous extracts from the IPA, CIS , Australian etc exist . Even John Waslh one of the NDIS architects was warning by 2014 was warning of eligibilty creep and unworkable systems. The social backlash against these critics was immense
I want to clarify what I meant when I quickly wrote the comment above this morning. My isusues are more clearly detailled below.
I found the introduction to this interview deeply problematic. Cameron’s claim that 'there weren't that many people 10 years ago saying the NDIS would become a problem... almost no one was talking about this' is a total erasure of the actual policy debate.
The reality is that an immense number of people were asking exactly how the scheme would work and who would check it. From Judith Sloan and Henry Ergas to the IPA and CIS, there was a consistent, loud, and very public warning that the NDIS lacked the gatekeeping and price-setting mechanisms to remain viable. Even one of the scheme’s own architects, John Walsh, was raising red flags about 'unworkable systems' and 'eligibility creep' by 2014.
To suggest that Paul Frijters was a lone voice in a sea of blind optimism isn't 'Fresh Thinking'—it’s revisionist history. The warnings didn't fail to exist; they failed to get traction because the government and progressive media socially and professionally vilified anyone who dared to question the 'vibe' of the scheme.
Using such a foundational falsehood as a lead-in to Paul’s 'unique insights' destroyed the credibility of the entire discussion for me. It felt less like an objective analysis and more like academic hagiography—a student still in awe of his supervisor’s brilliance at the expense of historical fact. I tuned out after 15 minutes.
I've been an admirer of you both since coming across Game of Mates around 2019 - the first analysis of Australian political corruption explaining to me what had gone wrong with Australia during my nearly two decades away teaching in Japan. I enjoyed the way you approached this interview with Paul - framing questions almost as I might do - not exactly sure where I was aiming for - but Paul immediately able to focus on the matter and deliver his analysis while hedging it with two or three possible scenario outcomes (having, as he said early on, grown through his younger sureties into realising developments can easily upset forecasts) but too that experience and the years teach other ways when making predictions. The questions on the NDIS - and I've not been involved closely with family of relatives - seemed to make a lot of sense - especially about the scamming of "providers" and how those originally to be cared for has grown to include a range of disabilities almost invisible to the wider population. And yes, there was an ABC news story I just watched last night which seemed to deal with such an emotionally presented case... But it was on the West Asia (or Middle East - to view it from Paul's geographic location) that I was most interested. That to see things as if the world were a schoolyard playground - with a bully (in this case I see it as the amalgam of the US/Zionist Israel) to which Australia immediately attaches itself - as a former teacher myself - the metaphor had immediate appeal - let alone the fact that like almost everyone else I was once a student in such spaces - not like Australia - but as one who kept away from the bullies and their allies. I was alert to the statistics of those killed in Gaza - for six months now I have been saying around 700,000 - at least 10 times more than most "official" figures which have scarcely grown since mid+2024 and I take Paul's point about seriously trying to understand what is happening taking effort - finding trustworthy sources, having memory and referring back to it and analysing - or else what - following the ABC news (totally compromised by its lying and censorship) and simply going with the flow? Which I can't do. Thank you to you and your guest for this edition of Fresh Economic Thinking!
700,000!? Wow. That’d be more than 25% of all Gazans wouldn’t it? What’s your source?
I’m curious on your view as to why Hamas, who are obviously incentivised to make Israel look as bad as possible, claim only a little over 10% of this figure.
My understanding is that there’s not a lot of room for fudging of these numbers (up or down), with pretty good publicly-available data on the Gazan population. I understood that as the reason why the death toll is one the few areas upon which Hamas and Israel agree.
That was an incredibly one-sided and deluded take!
The strategic, rational, long-term thinking Iranians vs the crazy, genocidal, irrational Israelis!
Israel unlikely to last another 3.5 months is just absurd!