Sunday, August 9, 2009


We all know that predicting is very difficult, especially about the future. Google tells my I should attribute that saying to the Danish physicist Neils Bohr, who won the Nobel Prize for physics in 1922, but I’m sure even he borrowed if from someone, because we are all in essence simply human prediction machines.

For the speculators out there, here are mine:

1.Oil will rise again. Maybe we’ll get to $200/barrel this time. Other raw materials will follow the boom.

2.We will have another crash in prices – shares, commodities, and possibly housing will come along for the ride this time.

3.People will point the finger in all directions except to the finite oil supply. Only the lone fighter on this blog will point out that we are in an adjustment period where we are going to have the change the way we do many things. But we will adapt, and we will look back at all the scaremongering and wonder why anyone thought it would be a difficult transition.

4.They say it’s all in the timing, but I am least confident about this point. The next crash will happen after Sept 2010, but before Dec 2012.

5.The crash is unlikely to be as sudden next time, although I wouldn’t rule out a surprisingly fast price free fall. I would expect some more restrained reactions by market actors after the 08/09 experience.

6.There is money to make in the next 12 months, but it might be wise to take profits when you can, phasing down exposure to financial stocks and commodities late next year.

7.For Capricorns, next year is a good time to focus on love, but also to gain control of your finances.

All but number 7 I reckon have merit. I just want to post this now so that if I am proven correct, I take credit for having amazing insight. If my predictions prove wrong, I’ll find reasons why and try and pass the blame. Although number 7 is a certainty!

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