Tuesday, August 25, 2009

In good company on a W-shaped recovery

These blog entries are my ideas. I have them, then I write them down. And when I find my ideas are being taken up by others (most likely independently), or my predictions prove accurate, I like to take some credit by posting a little reminder.

It seems my prediction of a second share market crash is now shared by a number of prominent economists. I'm not certain whether their predictions are based on oil supply considerations, but that is the fundamental basis for my own.

If we could get economic forecasting like this, where a two week range was proposed for a Chinese stock market crash, and was off the mark by only a week, economics would gain some serious social status.


  1. Don't be shy, put a date on it...

  2. My dates were pretty broad.

    "The next crash will happen after Sept 2010, but before Dec 2012."

    For the US - how about August 28th to September 7th 2010. Australia will closely follow - wihtin a month this time.

    The decline will be around 25% of the new peak to trough. It will take only about 6 months before stabilising at levels we see now see in Aus and US markets. So for Aus we may see the ASX200 down from about 5250 to 4000 in that period.

    Look out for concerned commentary by 'experts' from June next year onwards.

    That's the way to get over shyness.